Affordability Is on the Rise — 3 Reasons This Fall Looks Promising for Buyers

Over the past few years, many hopeful homebuyers have found it hard to make the math work. Home prices surged, mortgage rates climbed, and for a lot of people, the timing just didn’t feel right — maybe that was you.

But here’s the good news: things may be starting to shift. If you’ve been waiting for a better window to re-enter the market, this fall could finally bring some relief as affordability begins to show signs of improvement.

The latest data from Redfin shows the typical monthly mortgage payment has been coming down, and is now about $290 lower than it was just a few months ago (see graph below):

And here’s why this is happening. The cost of buying a home really comes down to three things:

• Mortgage rates
• Home prices
• Your wages

Right now, all three are finally moving in a better direction for you. While that doesn’t mean it’s suddenly easy to buy at today’s rates and prices, it does mean it’s not as challenging.

Mortgage Rates

Mortgage rates have started to ease compared to earlier this year. Back in May, they were hovering around 7%. Now, they’ve dropped to approximately 6.3% (see the graph below):

It might not seem like a huge shift, but it actually makes a real difference. Even a small drop in mortgage rates can significantly lower your monthly payment. For example, if you take out a $400,000 loan now at 6.3% instead of 7%, you’d save around $190 per month — just from the rate change alone.

For many buyers, that kind of savings is exactly what’s made homeownership feel possible again. As Joel Kan, VP and Deputy Chief Economist at the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA), said on September 10th:

“The downward rate movement spurred the strongest week of borrower demand since 2022 . . . Purchase applications increased to the highest level since July and continued to run more than 20 percent ahead of last year’s pace.”

Home Prices

After several years of rapid price increases, home price growth is finally starting to cool. As Odeta Kushi, Deputy Chief Economist at First American, explains:

“National home price growth remains positive, but muted — low single digits — and we expect this trend to continue in the second half of the year.”

Wages

The latest data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) shows wages are growing at an annual rate of around 4%. Lawrence Yun, Chief Economist at the National Association of Realtors (NAR), explains why that’s especially significant in today’s market:

“Wage growth is now comfortably outpacing home price growth, and buyers have more choices.”

In simple terms, the average paycheck is currently growing at a faster pace than home prices — and that shift is helping ease affordability. The gap might be small, but in a market like this, even modest improvements can make a meaningful difference.

What This Means for You

Lower mortgage rates, slower home price growth, and rising wages could be just the right combination to help make homebuying more achievable for you this fall.

Affordability is still a challenge, but things have improved compared to just a few months ago. In fact, according to Redfin, the typical monthly mortgage payment is now about $290 less than it was earlier this year — a meaningful difference for many buyers.

Key Takeaways

Have you been wondering if it’s worth taking another look at buying?

Let’s run the numbers together. We can go over your budget, see what’s changed, and figure out if this fall is the time to turn window-shopping into key-turning.